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Investors developed a case of the blues on Friday when the yield curve went into the red; but the history around yield curve inversions shows a wide swath of grey area. For the first time since mid-2007, the 10-year to 3-month (10y-3m) portion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted last Friday, which unleashed a near-2% decline in the S&P 500 on heightened fears of recession. That's the longest stretch of time since at least the early 1960s without an inversion.
Every recession since the mid-1960s has been preceded by an