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EEH - Bond Market Smells Recession. Will The Real Economy Follow?
Aktiebolaget Svensk Exportkredit Elements Linked to the SPECTRUM Large Cap U.S. Sector Momentum Index developed by BNP Paribas due Augu
Asset pricing is often mysterious as a source of figuring out exactly what Mr. Market is discounting, but in the case of bonds these days there's no ambiguity about the crowd's outlook. Recession is effectively a foregone conclusion, the yield curve is predicting. But while the real economy has slowed, growth remains strong enough to dispute the market's forecast, at least for now. The question is when or if the hard data will align with market's dark expectations?
Let's start with Treasury yields. The widely followed 10-year/3-month spread has been consistently negative since late-May (except