RNFTF - BP up to buy at RBC - no need for Rosneft

BP (NYSE:BP) shares have struggled in recent weeks, down ~13% even as oil prices have risen substantially. Friday, RBC analyst Biraj Borkhataria upgraded the shares, indicating that the Company's ~20% shareholding in Roseneft (OTCPK:RNFTF) is not as material as it once was.  Biraj estimates that BP will receive $1.8b in dividends from Rosneft in 2022. This equates to ~5% of BP's CFO forecast, and would be offset by a ~$6 move in oil prices. The implication being that if BP is forced to sell its share in Rosneft for political reasons, the war in Ukraine would be sufficiently severe to drive a $6 geopolitical risk premium in the oil price (NYSEARCA:USO).  Biraj is careful not to bless the Company's strategy, and indeed thinks that Management will continue to walk back statements from the 2020 capital markets day.  Rather he notes that BP trades at a 22% free cash flow yield,

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BP up to buy at RBC - no need for Rosneft