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Braskem’s recent Investor Day had some positives, but these were clouded by the many near-term risks.
The rising Alagoas provisions, the uncertainty around the Pemex contract, and the Cenegas contract cancellation are key overhangs, with the latter likely to have a material near-term financial impact.
While the current c. 7x EV/EBITDA seems cheap relative to historical levels, the material near-term risks mean the valuation discount is unlikely to narrow.