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Geoffrey H. Moore was famously called "the father of leading indicators" for his composite index approach to forecasting business cycles.
In this research note, I want to walk through an example of a leading indicator that Moore described for the employment market in a 1983 working paper.
The composite index approach to analyzing economic data is critically important in gaining information about the risk of an economic inflection point. Many economic forecasts work well during the linear phase of the economy or when the business cycle is trending,