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While there was a big downside NFP surprise (194K vs. Bloomberg consensus of 500K), the overall picture is not much altered.
There are reasons to believe that the September figures are perhaps distorted somewhat by seasonal issues (including school related), as well as real-world factors like the rise of the delta variant’s impact, to be discussed in the next post.
Current nowcasts for Q3 GDP are 1.4% (IHS-MarkIt), 1.3% (Atlanta Fed), and 3.25% (Goldman Sachs). As reported by CR, Merrill 2%.