NTR - CF Industries rallies to record as Russian invasion threatens fertilizer supply

CF Industries (CF +2.4%) soars to all-time highs as Russia's attack on Ukraine threatens to disrupt global supplies of fertilizers, with the cost of fertilizers already skyrocketing because of high prices for natural gas in Europe. Russia was the world's largest exporter of nitrogen products in 2021, and "reduced exports would tighten balances in Northern Hemisphere agricultural markets first, since their main consumption season occurs in 2Q, while benefiting North American peers such as CF Industries, Mosaic and Nutrien," Bloomberg analyst Alexis Maxwell says; MOS +2%, NTR +1.5%, IPI +7.1%. CF is highly sensitive to changes in nitrogen fertilizer prices, "as the company is capable of selling 19M-20M product tons annually, and a $50 change in margin is worth an estimated $1B in annual EBITDA," J.P. Morgan analysts said recently even while downgrading the stock. CF Industries has said the global shortage of nitrogen will persist for the foreseeable future,

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CF Industries rallies to record as Russian invasion threatens fertilizer supply