MRK - CG Oncology Bringing Undervalued Innovation To Bladder Cancer

2024-07-09 09:19:07 ET

Summary

• CG Oncology's cretostimogene shows high potential to disrupt the NMIBC market with promising efficacy and safety data.
• The company is initially targeting high-risk NMIBC patients who no longer respond to the BCG vaccine, but intermediate-risk patients could bring the addressable market above 60,000.
• Cretostimogene is the company's only asset and there is likely to be significant competition, most likely from Johnson & Johnson.
• Peak market share of 30% and a $300K sales price at peak can support over $3B in potential revenue and a $54 fair value today.

Maybe different isn’t always better, but it can be just as good.

CG Oncology ( CGON ) is different from the biotechs I normally prefer to look at, as the company doesn’t really have a platform or a pipeline beyond its lead candidate cretostimogene grenadenorepvec, an oncolytic adenovirus targeted at non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (or NMIBC). Still, taking a cue from Mark Twain (“put all your eggs in one basket and WATCH THAT BASKET”), I think this is a high-potential name worth consideration....

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