DE - CNH Industrial Early In Its Self-Help Story With A Cyclical Boost Today

• With strong demand recoveries in ag and construction machinery and lean channel inventories, CNH has good leverage for near-term revenue growth and margin improvement.
• CNH's new CEO is focused principally on simplifying the business, including a more margin-savvy assortment in construction, more tech-driven ag sales, and more efficient manufacturing across the business.
• Management is keeping an open mind with respect to its on-highway operations, including negotiating with strategic buyers on a sale while preparing for a spin-off.
• Between cyclical demand recoveries, an improved product line-up, and improved manufacturing, I expect mid-single-digit revenue growth and meaningful FCF margin improvement.
• Mid-single-digit revenue growth, low double-digit EBITDA margins, and mid-single-digit FCF margins can support a fair value of around $18.

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