BMBL - Comprehensive Q1 Review Of My Stock Picks + Ratings Updates

2025-03-30 10:00:00 ET

Summary

• Although there is one day left in Q1, I'm pleased to present a detailed review of my Q1 stock picks, along with updated commentary and ratings.
• Today's report begins with an unconventional review of Apple, which I plan to drop coverage on.
• This report contains new coverage of 38 stocks that I've previously written about here at Seeking Alpha.

It's hard to believe that the first quarter of 2025 has already passed. To be precise, there's one more trading day left in March. My " Year of The Dragon 2024 Comprehensive Review " article, which clocked-in at more than 7,000 words last December, was very well received by readers here at Seeking Alpha. So I'll try to pursue the same format and depth, and writing style. I'll be focusing on company stocks, and won't be covering leveraged or covered call ETFs.

As I approach the 1-year milestone of my return as a Seeking Alpha contributor, inevitably the breadth of my past coverage grows. For this reason, I'm not always able to get quarterly update articles out on tickers that I've previously analyzed. Some of those updates will come here.

Without further ado, let's get going, in alphabetical order by ticker as usual, beginning with an unconventional discussion about Apple.

Apple Corp. ( AAPL )

I've shied away from Apple Corp. as a Short in recent months, but it has little to do with any change in my bearish view of the company's fundamental economic value (which is easily under $200/share, in my opinion). Rather, my reason for getting skittish about Shorting AAPL is my belief that some narrow areas of traditional capital markets may be morphing into collector markets . In December, I asked the following unexpected question:

What Would Apple Stock Be Worth Without A Profitable Business?

My answer to that question, surprisingly, is essentially ~ "I don't know" . In that article, I referenced Green Bay Packer stock certificates, which formally give the owner (collector) no equity rights, but the certificates are often in high demand anyhow.

I don't religiously follow Warren Buffett, but as he and other value investors cut their positions in AAPL during H2 2024, I asked myself who was buying at the same time? My hunch is that many Apple stock buyers are what I'd deem "collectors" - essentially people with little/no concern for the economic returns emanating from the underlying business itself.

AAPL actually dipped below $210 briefly in mid-March. I theorize that the pullback from ~$255 was largely guaranteed by index selling, as investors fretted about the Trump Administration's economic policies. This selloff in Apple shares likely provides another opportunity for "collectors" to increasingly fill the shoes that fundamental shareholders left behind. After market selloffs, I expect Apple stock to rebound more quickly than most, for just that reason.

The stock remains richly valued at >30x FWD GAAP P/E, with growth not much higher than expected GDP. Furthermore, it's noteworthy that Apple may be subject to a huge import tax bill ( some suggest it could be ~$20 billion ) on the basis of the Trump Administration's import tariffs on goods from China. At the end of the day though, I'm not sure most Apple stock buyers really care about the business economics - and that's what's dangerous.

There's a poker analogy to be made regarding Apple stock. A good poker player will tell you that the most dangerous table is one where the other players aren't making decisions according to normal conventions. If a good poker player finds themselves at a table like this, their best decision is to stand up and walk away. That's kind of how I feel about holding a position in Apple stock. If Apple's profits completely dried up (to zero), I'm not confident enough to declare that the stock would definitely fall - it might not. That's because I believe that the investors who are increasingly holding the cards (AAPL shares) are no longer playing by the conventional rules.

There's a small collection of popular misfit assets out in the world that have no identifiable fundamental value, but are still highly desired and soaring in price. I see no reason Apple stock couldn't be one of them....

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