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ZROZ - Conflicting Inflation Forecasts: Treasury Market Vs. Economists
PIMCO 25 Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund
The future's unclear, especially when it comes to anticipating the trend for inflation. Or so it appears based on comparing the Treasury market's implied forecast vs. recent estimates from several prominent investment and consultancy shops.
Let's start with the Treasury market, which continues to price in a rebound in US inflation expectations. Consider the 5-year Note's implied estimate, based on the yield spread for the nominal rate less its inflation-indexed counterpart. After diving in March, threatening to reach zero and perhaps go negative, the forecast has bounced sharply in recent weeks. At yesterday's close, the