CNST - Constellation Pharmaceuticals: Myelofibrosis Treatment Win Can Still Happen - We'll Know Soon

• Constellation's lead candidate CPI-0610 has shown efficacy as a potential monotherapy or combo treatment alongside Jakafi, against myelofibrosis in a phase 2 trial.
• The BET-inhibitor is scheduled to enter a pivotal phase 3 trial in H220, with similar endpoints - spleen reduction volume and total symptom score reduction.
• The company's share price has drifted from a June high of $50 to $19.5, as analysts have cast doubt over whether there is a sure-fire path to approval.
• The requirement for a 2-year phase 3 trial opens the door to numerous competitors that have also shown efficacy against MF, in combination with Jakafi.
• The market has struggled to price Constellation shares but positive data from the MANIFEST-2 trial due in 2020 could provide substantial upside. I am 60-40 in favour of this outcome.

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