RYAOF - Conventum-Alluvium Global Fund December 2024 Quarterly Report
2025-03-10 13:45:00 ET
Summary
- We bought two new companies during the quarter, Mastercard and Charter Communications.
- In late October the Federal Court granted the Federal Trade Commission injunction with respect to the Capri and Tapestry merger.
- We now have 24 years of performance data for the MSCI World Value and Growth Indices.
Introduction
If you had asked us in late September about the short term market rami?cations of a Trump election win, we would have refused to answer. Not because we don’t think about these things. Rather, because they are not knowable (despite what “so-called” experts may profess). But if pressed, perhaps we would have mentioned that some possible effects could be:
- Higher interest rates and a stronger USD (stemming from protectionist policy proposals leading to higher in?ation).
- Appreciation of gold and bitcoin (due to the perception of a “volatile” leader and increasing political uncertainty).
- A general rise in US equity prices (as the market starts to factor in likely reductions to the US corporate tax rate).
- Better performance from traditional “value” stocks relative to “growth” stocks (as the replacement cost of tangible assets rises, and higher interest rates lead to near term cash ?ows being valued more highly than distant cash ?ows).
- Poor performance for those companies that have revenues largely reliant on government climate incentives.