ACTV - Cooling U.S. Jobs Market Keeps September Rate Cut In Play
2024-07-05 12:05:00 ET
Summary
- Jobs growth is cooling, particularly in the private sector, and the unemployment rate has now broken above 4%, which is helping to keep wages in check.
- With inflation also looking better behaved the chances of a September interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve continues to build.
- The June jobs report shows non-farm payrolls rose 206k versus the 190k consensus, but there were some big downward revisions to the history.
Weakening jobs trend accompanied by rising unemployment
The June jobs report shows non-farm payrolls rose 206k versus the 190k consensus, but there were some big downward revisions to the history, with the previous two months seeing 111k fewer jobs being added than originally thought. As the chart below shows, this indicates a clear cooling in job creation, with the 3-month moving average now at its weakest since January 2021. The other big story is the unemployment rate breaking above 4% to 4.1%. This was just 3.4% in April of last year and indicates that slack is forming, which is keeping a lid on wage growth. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% MoM/3.9% YoY, the slowest rate of annual increase since 2Q 2021....
Cooling U.S. Jobs Market Keeps September Rate Cut In Play