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RSP - Coronavirus And The U.S. Economy: How Big Will The Hit Be
Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight
By Eric Winograd
Last week’s incoming labor-market data indicates a sizable blow to the US economy from coronavirus-related shutdowns and restrictions. We had been working with the idea of a 7.5% first-half 2020 gross domestic product ((GDP)) contraction, but based on new data that seems optimistic.
We now expect the shock to be at least 10%–12%. Incoming labor and government-spending data will help us refine the estimate, but a shock of that size would push down our 2020 GDP forecast. Of course, we expect that forecast to change repeatedly during the course of the year