SAAFY - Could the US and Europe face a diesel fuel shortage if Russian exports fall?

Russia's war in Ukraine revealed several vulnerabilities in global energy markets. The diesel supply has not been a major focus in the press; however, self-sanctioning has reverberated through diesel commodity markets. Shortly following invasion, the price of diesel in Europe spiked to a $50+ premium over crude oil, a near 10x increase from recent levels:    In Singapore, middle distillate (diesel, gasoil, jet fuel) inventories fell 32% below pre-pandemic, seasonally adjusted averages. In Europe, diesel inventories fell back to 2008 levels. In the US, inventories fell ~37% from mid 2020 levels, even as refinery utilization ticked above 90%:   While self-sanctioning immediately impacted spot cargoes, purchases made prior to the invasion have largely sailed. The IEA anticipates physical-market impacts will begin in earnest during April. Russia exports ~1.1mb/d of diesel, mostly to Europe. BP (NYSE:BP) and Shell (NYSE:SHEL) have already warned German customers of impending shortages. Chinese exports are another

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Could the US and Europe face a diesel fuel shortage if Russian exports fall?