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Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge
As the pandemic ends, the U.S. economy is likely to gradually be driven by a circular flow that emphasizes private income and spending rather than government subsidies.
From this particular starting point, I expect that the S&P 500 will go nowhere for something approaching 20 years.
If inflation emerges, we’re likely to see the yield curve steepen sharply, with real short-term interest rates becoming more negative, which tends to be favorable for commodities and precious metals.