AGCO - Deere: Material Downside Into 2019
Coverage of Deere (DE) is nearly universally bullish and Wall Street, while rightly cautious, still has a $176/share consensus target sitting out there on the firm. Peruse most professional analyst models of the company and the outlook looks darn good: fiscal 2021 EBITDA estimates are around $7,200mm, up 35% from realized fiscal 2018 levels. However, there is more to the story.
Those assumptions are built off of solid growth from 2018 (mid to high single digits) but most importantly are also built off some aggressive margin expansion expectations - so much so that