DISH - DISH Network Q3: So Bad That I May Cry

2023-11-06 08:45:59 ET

Summary

• DISH Network Corporation's Q3 results showed a massive miss in GAAP EPS and a smaller miss in revenue.
• The company's subscriber count declined in all reported categories, reaching its lowest point since at least Q4 2021.
• DISH's cash and equivalents have fallen by over 50% since the beginning of the year, and the stock is below its moving averages.
• Q3 offered nothing to tell me that a DISH turnaround is in the works.

DISH Network Corporation (DISH) has just reported its Q3 results as Seeking Alpha has covered here . GAAP EPS beat missed by a massive margin while revenue missed by a much smaller margin. Pre-market moves after earnings can be fickle and the stock was down nearly 10% at one point but has since recovered a little to be down just 5% as of this writing.

What did the market not like about this DISH report? Is there anything to like at all? Let's review the latest edition of The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly.

The Good

This section is going to challenge me as a writer and an optimist because almost everything I see in the report is in the wrong direction. But let's try.

• Pay-TV's Average Revenue Per User [ARPU] has been trending up every single quarter at least dating back to Q4 2021. This can be a double-edged sword though as ARPU can go up in both scenarios when a company is losing users and when a company is gaining users. The reason I am listing it as a positive here is that while DISH is losing subscribers (covered below), the ones who end up staying may end up being more profitable (margin), should the company execute with discipline.

• After reaching nearly 2% in Q1 2023, DISH TV's churn rate returned to its median level over the last two years at 1.50% to 1.60%. Being desperate to find good news in a sea of bad (covered below), I find it reasonable that the Wireless churn rate is at its lowest point in the last two years at 4.21%, down from nearly 5% at the end of Q4 2021.
• Sling TV net additions returned to the (mildly) positive territory after reporting three consecutive negative quarters.

The Bad and The Ugly

• Subscribers declined in every reported category:
  • 64,000 Pay-TV subscribers lost in Q3 2023 compared to 30,000 gain in Q3 2022.
  • 225,000 wireless subscribers lost in Q3 2023 compared to 1,000 gain in Q3 2022.
  • More worryingly, at the end of Q3 2023, DISH had its lowest subscriber count in both Pay-TV and DISH TV dating back to at least Q4 2021. DISH TV has been declining QoQ at least since Q4 2021 except for a minor uptick in Q3 2022, Pay-TV has also been showing QoQ decline.

For further details see: