FDP - Dole: Sour IPO Presents Juicy Opportunity For Value Shoppers

• DOLE priced its IPO at the low end of an already-lowered range and then the stock traded down from there on the first day of trading.
• Based on a cash flow analysis, I estimate the stock should currently be worth ~$24 per share, representing ~60% upside from the current price.
• On an EV/EBITDA basis, DOLE trades at a two-turn discount to its closest peer - Fresh Del Monte. Closing that gap would drive the upside I am forecasting.
• Sell-side initiations and the initiation of a dividend could be catalysts.
• In a worst-case scenario of poor cash flow generation, I can see an additional ~30% downside, representing a 2:1 risk/reward scenario.

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