ARLP - Domestic coal price charts form space needle pattern

US thermal coal producers have enjoyed strong performance year to date, as Europe has bid up liquified natural gas prices to rebuild inventories, driving Asian buyers to substitute thermal coal into the power stack, and resulting in record seaborne thermal coal prices: However, for US producers international prices are only ~14% of the story; the EIA estimates that US coal production will rise to 621mt in 2022, with only ~89mt being sold into export markets. Taking Alliance (ARLP) as an example, the company has contracted 4.1mt for export sale in 2022, but contracted 26.0mt with domestic customers; assuming a $250/t export price, and given guidance for a $59/t blended sales price, the implied domestic sales price is a bit less than $30/t. Alliance's (ARLP) "EBITDA cost per ton" (cash cost) has averaged ~$30 in recent quarters, which would suggest that legacy domestic contracts, accounting for more than 85% of volumes,

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Domestic coal price charts form space needle pattern