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We look at how the ECB now has an inflation credibility problem given diverging market-based inflation expectations - although there may be little appetite from the hawks within the Governing Council to act now. Any dovish tilt could come in the form of stronger forward guidance and signals that further easing is likely later this year. EUR/USD's bearish bias going into the meeting lends itself to a "buy the rumour, sell the fact (or disappointment)" reaction in the event that the ECB does not deliver what the market wants in terms of jawboning or easing