EWJV - Economic Data Are Sending Mixed And Confusing Signals

2025-05-06 10:30:00 ET

Summary

• While the impact of the tariffs is likely not yet being felt in the hard economic data, US sentiment is weak.
• Nonfarm payrolls surpassed expectations in April but may deteriorate as tariffs likely weigh on hiring activity.
• We expect a 25-basis point cut, which should support stronger activity in the second half.

April 2025 served as a stark reminder to investors that timing the market is a fool’s errand. The S&P 500 Index had dropped 19% from its peak ahead of and in the week following “Liberation Day,” but it’s essentially back to where it was on April 2. ¹

Investors have celebrated the perceived willingness of the Trump administration to adjust course on tariffs and attacks on the Federal Reserve (Fed) if certain pain thresholds are crossed....

For further details see: