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The United States is in recession now, the sharpest decline in our nation's history. (We don't have sufficient data from the 1700s and 1800s to verify that, but it seems quite probable.)
The most likely path is a V that turns level before reaching it previous peak, somewhat resembling a square root symbol.
The path for the economic recovery comes from the path for the health recovery. In that respect, this article draws on ideas from the excellent paper "National coronavirus response: A road