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The dominant story during the past 16 months has been one of imminent recession and stock market collapse. The last time we publicly addressed this narrative was three weeks ago. Since then, the word 'recession' has almost disappeared from the lexicon of investment writing, and confidence in the stock market has increased significantly. Such rapid flips in sentiment make us sit up and pay attention, since they often signal changes in trends. As it turns out, the market seems to be pulling back now, and this gives us a reason to revisit the facts