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Editor's note: This article was originally published on April 29, 2020, by James Hamilton here.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP fell at a 4.8% annual rate in the first quarter of 2020. That's a rate of decline that we only see historically during the worst quarter of a recession.
Real GDP growth at an annual rate, 1947:Q2-2020:Q1, with the 1947-2019 historical average (3.1%) in blue and post-Great-Recession average (2.3%) in red.