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YGRN - EIA International Energy Outlook 2019 And Oil Shock Model Scenarios
Bank of Montreal ZC SP ETN REDEEM 25/03/2039 USD 50 - Ser E YGRN
By Dennis Coyne
The EIA recently released its International Energy Outlook and it is quite optimistic. In the chart below, I compare their estimate for World Crude plus Condensate (C+C) output with an oil shock model with a URR of about 3100 Gb.
The IEO reference scenario shown above (blue line) for World C+C has a trendline with a slope of 735 kb/d from 2017 to 2050, slightly less than the 1982 to 2018 slope for World C+C output's annual increase of about 800 kb/d. The difference between the IEO C+C output forecast and my