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KCCB - EM Corporate High Yield 2021 Default Outlook - Midyear Review
KraneShares CCBS China Corporate High Yield Bond USD Index
We expect a marginal uptick in defaults from our original estimates, given rising China corporate default risk, offset by an improving outlook for much of the emerging markets.
The EM corporate HY default rate stands at 1.6% YTD (as of July 30, 2021).
Overall, we remain constructive on the EM corporate HY markets for H2 2021 given the relatively benign default outlook, even though our forecast for the year has ticked up marginally.