SIJ - Empire Fed Contraction Streak

2024-07-15 15:15:00 ET

Summary

• In a fairly light data slate this morning, the NY Fed released its monthly regional manufacturing survey results.
• Despite that better-than-expected reading, the still negative index would indicate that activity in the region's manufacturing sector continues to contract.
• New orders index negative for past ten months, longest streak on record; labor market mixed with weak employment but increased workweek.

In a fairly light data slate this morning, the NY Fed released its monthly regional manufacturing survey results. The headline reading showed a minor drop down to -6.6. While down 0.6 points month over month, it was a modestly smaller decline than the expected drop to -7.6. Despite that better-than-expected reading, the still negative index would indicate that activity in the region's manufacturing sector continues to contract. As shown in the second chart below, July marks the eighth straight month of negative readings and matches another 8-month streak from late 2015 through March 2016. The NY Fed survey began in 2001, and the only longer streak was 17 months during the Financial Crisis....

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