EIPAF - Eni: Demand Side Dampens Oil Outlook
2025-04-14 04:39:39 ET
Summary
- Eni S.p.A. is undervalued with an EV/EBIT of 2.3x for E&P and traditional oil businesses, significantly below peers, indicating a potential relative value play.
- Investments in Enilive and Plenitude are valued at around 10 billion EUR each, with recent precedents leading to the compressed valuation.
- We see general risks of supply in renewable fuels due to low conversion costs, and the commodity outlook across the board for Eni's businesses, including Plenitude, is grim.
- While the demand forecasts have been volatile this last week with lots of revisions on the back of Trump's tariff policies, supply is definitely growing, which is our concern.