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LVMHF - Ensemble Fund Quarterly Investment And Market Update - Winter 2020
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Fourth Quarter 2019
2019 began with recession fears stalking investors. It ended with the strongest annual return for the US stock market since 1997. These two facts are not unrelated. Investors were not "wrong" to worry about a recession a year ago. It seems clear that the odds of a recession were indeed elevated as we discussed in our letter a year ago. However, 2019 is a near perfect case study in how it is changes in expectations that drive market returns. This is why the market was so strong, even as economic growth did