SBUX - Everybody Thinks We Are In A Recession

2024-05-28 02:10:03 ET

Summary

• The majority of people and managers believe the US is in a recession, despite official data showing economic growth.
• Consumer confidence is low due to perceptions of rising inflation and high unemployment.
• The disconnect between consumer sentiment and official data suggests a potential recessionary bear market for the S&P 500.

The Disconnect

The recent Guardian/Harris poll finds that most Americans think that the US economy is in a recession . This is corroborated with the recent sharp drop in the Michigan Consumer to sub-70, which is consistent with the recessionary readings. In fact, consumer confidence has been at recessionary levels since 2022, with a brief bounce in 2023, as the chart below shows....

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