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One of the most impactful sectors here, auto sales fell to a 13.33 million annualized rate in March, down 30% from their cycle peak last April.
At the same time, importers of durable goods, stressed by supply chain disruptions during the pandemic, over-ordered goods in anticipation of a continuation in elevated demand.
Inventory overbuilds typically lead to deflationary liquidation cycles and economic weakness as prices get marked down to clear.