QVMS - Falling Confidence Beats Numbers But Be Careful With Q2 GDP - Weekly Blog # 734

• The classical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. The first report for Q1 indicated a decline of 1.4%. It will be interesting to see how Q2 GDP is handled after the July 4th holiday.
• If like the first quarter it is a negative, which looks more likely than not, the definition of two consecutive negative quarters representing a recession may be viewed by some as fulfilled. If not, we may have to wait for an October surprise.
• Racetrack handicappers hope to find “smart money” to give them an edge.

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