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As the financial news networks have reported, the yield curve on government securities has inverted. When the yield curve inverts, which is to say when short maturity bonds yield higher than longer maturity bonds, there is a general view that a recession in the next 12-24 months becomes more likely.
It is, in any case, an unusual situation, and one that garners attention from macroeconomists and financial market participants alike.
In fact, going back to 1960, inversions of the yield curve have occurred nine times, with two not preceding a recession.