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GOVT - Federal Reserve Arbitrage Machine - Part One
iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF
Understanding the cyclical position of the economy is absolutely key for proper investment allocation. If it were possible to know the exact position with certainty, an investor could close their position at the top of the market, short-sell and re-enter at the bottom, making extreme profits. Of course, this is impossible as real world events are often unpredictable.
That said, market-price derived factors such as the yield curve, inflation expectations, and changes to sovereign credit risk provide key insight into estimating and forecasting the business cycle. I have been working on a model to do