GBTC - GBTC ETF: Volatility Should Persist But Halving Highlights Bitcoin's Resiliency

2024-04-29 19:08:53 ET

Summary

• After a one-year upside of 275%, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) seems to be taking a breather and lost around 8% during the last month.
• The demand-supply equation behaving irrationally, the mining hash rate seemingly having reached a top and the possibility of investors diversifying away from Bitcoin all constitute risks.
• Therefore, it is not the right time to invest since volatility may continue as the Bitcoin ecosystem adjusts to the realities of the fourth halving.
• On the other hand, the drop in miners' output following halving tends to show that the Bitcoin system has delivered on the scarcity mandate.
• As such, it is better to wait for a better margin of safety and be on the watch-out for miners' performance to obtain an indication of whether things have stabilized.

This is my first thesis on Bitcoin USD ( BTC-USD ) since the halving event which occurred on April 20, as marked in blue in the chart below and the price seems to be moving sideways....

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