DES - GDP (And GDI) Lays Out The Perfect Supply Shock Case And Its Downside

• Final Q4 GDP was left pretty much unchanged from its second estimate. The reason was about $20 billion (give or take) removed from final sales but then added to inventories. Already epic, the quarterly change in private inventories (nominal) now stands at barely shy of a quarter-trillion (SAAR) in a single quarter.
• Now inventory is starting to tell the other side of the classic supply shock story, when goods arrive at a time when demand is more questionable.
• Despite the assurances about some labor shortage, businesses instead aren’t paying market-clearing rates, which is keeping millions on the sidelines when recovery in work is needed for full recovery across the economy.

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