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After adding to my GDX positions near the September lows, the strong rally seen since then appears overdone, and I am no longer bullish.
While rising gold prices and falling oil prices should support profitability, valuations are now expensive on most metrics.
The rally in gold prices is out of line with trends seen in US real bond yields, suggesting the metal is the most overvalued it has been since August 2020.
A gold price correction would kick the legs from under the GDX's rally, which is already overdone based on current gold prices.