FGM - Germany's Manufacturing Sector - An Unlikely Saviour In The Pandemic?

• Structural factors causing underperformance of the manufacturing sector compared to services in 2018-19 have been pushed to the background during the pandemic.
• The characteristics of the COVID-19 shock contrast starkly with those of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008-09, allowing Germany's manufacturing sector to weather the current second wave of virus infections even better than the first.
• Germany's GDP growth pattern in 2021 will be dominated by the speed with which administrative restrictions and increasing vaccination enable a sustained service-sector recovery, but robust manufacturing activity will put a floor under any setbacks.

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