GERN - Geron Corporation: A High-Risk Deal With A Good Chance Of Success

2024-05-23 17:49:01 ET

Summary

• Geron Corporation's unique product, Imetelstat, could potentially bring real benefits to hematological diseases with a Total Addressable Market value of $7 billion by 2031.
• Clinical studies have shown statistical evidence supporting the effectiveness of Imetelstat in inhibiting telomerase and treating diseases.
• The FDA Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee voted in favor of Imetelstat (12 to 2) for patients with MDS.
• Despite the high risk associated with a single-product business, there is a good chance of positive evolution and the potential for a significant return on investment.

Geron Corporation (GERN) could reach a turning point on June 16, 2024, after 34 years of its foundation. This date could represent the new company's commercial transformation. It could bring its unique product Imetelstat to new life on the real market and this drug could be able to bring real benefits to serious and highly disabling hematological diseases (MDS and MF).

If we analyze the results of the IMerge Phase 3 clinical study we can see how there is statistical evidence to support the possibility that Imetelstat acts effectively on telomerase and can lead to a positive treatment of the disease.

Market analyses also lead us to think that there is a large segment of the population that can benefit from Imetelstat which, according to Geron, could reach $7B in 2031. Assuming that Geron can realistically conquer 20% of this market share, my estimates indicate a possible 3-digit return on investment in the coming years....

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