AVUV - Global Economic Outlook: February 2025
2025-02-20 04:15:00 ET
Summary
- Shifts in US policy, and their potential economic implications, remain in focus.
- Our global growth forecasts for 2025–26 have been lifted slightly in the February update, although this masks some contrasting national revisions.
- We have revised down our real GDP growth forecasts for 2025 in Brazil, the UK and Russia.
Shifts in US policy, and their potential economic implications, remain in focus. Early February's ?urry of tariff-related announcements rattled global ?nancial markets initially. Pausing the proposed tariffs on US imports from Canada and Mexico subsequently soothed those initial jitters. Still, the surge in policy-related uncertainty has the capacity to cause signi?cant economic damage. We have factored rising US tariffs and related counter-measures into our forecasts since December 2024, with trade weakness the primary cause of the projected slowdown in quarter-over-quarter global real GDP growth rates this year. Weaker investment is a key downside risk....
Global Economic Outlook: February 2025