FORH - Global Economic Outlook: July 2024

2024-07-17 04:20:00 ET

Summary

• Global growth is being supported by moderating in?ation, more accommodative ?nancial conditions and a pickup in global trade.
• S&P Global Market Intelligence analysts' forecast of global real GDP growth in 2024 is unchanged at 2.7% in July's update.
• The composite global output index lost ground for the ?rst time in eight months.
• Global consumer price in?ation is forecast to continue its gradual decline.
• Monetary policy easing is forecast to become more widespread from late 2024.

Global growth is being supported by moderating in?ation, more accommodative ?nancial conditions and a pickup in global trade. Still, growth rates are not forecast to reach the heights of prior expansions owing to a combination of headwinds including elevated debt burdens, higher interest rates and various geopolitical uncertainties. At the regional and national levels, our forecast narrative remains one of divergent near-term trends. The forecast includes a continuation of the gradual slowdown in the US economy, re?ecting factors including tighter bank lending standards, less supportive ?scal policy and the strong dollar. In contrast, economic conditions have been improving in Western Europe, although growth is expected to remain rather tepid....

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