YUMY - Global Macro Outlook - Q2 2022

• The magnitude of the war’s impact on growth and inflation will be determined by how much and for how long energy prices rise.
• The war, economic sanctions and the associated rise in energy costs are likely to exacerbate global shipping impediments, too, which had begun to recover from the pandemic.
• We expect most central banks to continue tightening monetary policy, even as consumers face a hit to real incomes from rising energy prices.
• Perspective is important: the reopening from COVID-19 pushed global economic growth well above long-term trends, and US households in particular now have a reservoir of savings that will allow them to smooth consumption through trying times.

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