AAAU - Gold And The Boom-Bust Cycle

• The true fundamentals have been trending in a gold-bearish direction since early-October of last year, which is a large part of the reason that the gold price has been in a downward trend for the past several months.
• Credit spreads are one useful measure of economic confidence, with widening spreads indicating falling confidence and narrowing spreads indicating rising confidence.
• My guess is that the current boom will be short by historical standards, but there is no need to guess correctly because real-time data will provide timely warnings that the transition from boom to bust has begun.

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