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I would not underestimate how quickly the treasury market can reprice the path of monetary policy and I expect yields to move higher as the Fed undershoots market expectations for a 50bp-75bp lower Federal Funds rate. A July rate cut of at least 25 basis points is completely priced in at 100% chance. I would estimate the real probability to be 70% of a cut to 30% chance of no-move in either direction. This creates a very skewed risk of being long gold. If the Fed does cut 25 basis points, there is no upside