CUR - Gold: Reversal Signals Are Increasing

2024-06-05 10:10:03 ET

Summary

• Gold prices have reached new record highs above USD 2,450 per ounce due to heightened geopolitical tensions and robust central bank buying.
• The safe-haven demand stemming from conflicts and physical buying in Asia are driving the gold bull run.
• In the short term, the gold bull seems to be getting a bit tired and might soon need a breather to recharge for the next ascent.
• A potential head-and-shoulder topping pattern could first bring another bounce starting from around USD 2,280 - 2,300 and targeting approx. USD 2,400. However, once support between USD 2,280 and 2,300 is broken, gold prices likely will correct back towards the former support around USD 2,100.

Just a few weeks ago, we published an update of our quantitative Gold Model as our contribution to the yearly "In Gold We Trust Report 2024". Based on a lot of data, we came to the conclusion that gold might have seen its top already or at least should be close to it. As well, we stated that silver's rally was still missing. With gold reaching a new all-time and silver breaking out above USD 30 in the meantime, it is time for an in-depth update.

The gold market’s meteoric rise over the past seven-and-a-half months has been nothing short of extraordinary. Fueled by heightened geopolitical tensions and robust central bank buying, gold prices smashed through resistance around USD 2,075 to new record highs above USD 2,450 per ounce....

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