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Despite the Iran-induced spike higher in the price of gold, we still think that the bear thesis remains alive. In this article, we revisit the pattern similarity of gold and several other markets in 2016 and today.
Just like in 2016, the 'early-winter-to-late-summer' inverse pattern between gold and the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) is still in play. TBT has been grinding higher making high-highs, even as gold has spiked higher on headline fears (chart below).
Gold's RSI has once again risen above 80. Five of the last seven times this has occurred,