JEPI - Gross Output In Q4'20 Indicates A Strong Recovery In 2021

• In the final accounting for real GDP for 2020, we're back to Goldilocks growth after a way-too-cold second quarter (-31.4%, annualized from the previous quarter) and a torrid third quarter (+33.4%). The fourth quarter was "just right," at +4.3%, up from February's 4.1% estimate.
• The much better news is that real Gross Output grew 6.7%, or more than half - again, faster than real GDP. Both GO and GDP have now exceeded their pre-pandemic values and are near their highest levels ever.
• The good news from 2020 is that business spending outpaced consumer spending during the second half last year. This is an encouraging indication that the government-induced 2020 recession was short and sharp but the underlying business fundamentals remained significantly stronger than the bears feared.

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