AFMC - Groundhog Day For The Bond Market

2024-02-08 04:00:00 ET

Summary

• After the release of the January Employment Situation report, it must have felt like Groundhog Day for the U.S. Treasury market.
• Heading into the January release, there had been some conjecture that the annual revisions could potentially reveal a slower pace of new job creation.
• At a minimum, it seems reasonable to conclude that this jobs report, at least at this time, will more than likely confirm Powell’s “base case” of no rate cut in March.

By Kevin Flanagan

This past Friday was Groundhog Day, and Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow, which means early spring rather than six more weeks of winter. However, his success rate is apparently only 40%. Still, that’s better than a baseball player, where a 30% success rate puts you in the All-Star game. After the release of the January Employment Situation report, it must have felt like Groundhog Day for the U.S. Treasury ((UST)) market....

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